This time last year, the country was still in the midst of a cost of living crisis, and the advertising and marketing industry – like every sector – was crying out for political and economic stability, with the inflationary and recessionary forces impacting all businesses.
So, that was then, this is now… has much changed?
Well, interestingly, the first IPA/Bellwether Report of the year saw outlook for marketing budgets in the 2023/24 financial year being strongly positive.
A large proportion of surveyed companies (39.5%) expected total marketing budgets to be higher in 2023/24, while only 15.3% anticipated spending cuts. This led to a strongly positive net balance of +24.2%, indicating a robust outlook among UK marketers.
Indeed, optimism towards budgets was seen across all seven broad Bellwether categories, with the strongest category being events (net balance of +18.0%) as companies continued their efforts to re-engage with existing clients and prospects face-to-face.
Companies also took a strongly positive view on the outlook for main media marketing (net balance of +13.4%), with sales promotions (net balance of +7.9%), direct marketing, PR, other marketing activities and market research (net balances of +5.8%, +3.7%, +2.4% and +2.0% respectively) are also poised for moderate budget growth.
Alan Agency managing director Michael Richards summed up the findings by saying: “Now is the time to be bold. Staying safe and doing what you’ve always done just isn’t going to cut the recessionary mustard.
“Marketers need to invest in work that is electrifying and deeply moving. Injecting emotion and humanity into their clients’ work will sort the wheat from the chaff of 2023.”
However, when push came to shove, it was sales promotions which saw the biggest upward revisions in the 23-year history of the Bellwether Report when the Q2 figures were published, with brand owners striving to support consumers through the cost of living crisis.
Overall the report suggested that the Q1 industry confidence boost had been short-lived, reined in by rising interest rates and stubbornly-high inflation which had been weighing on the economy.
While many in adland gnashed their teeth, others saw the resurgence of sales promotions as a positive factor. Blackhawk Network EMEA regional lead for commerce Anna Uprichard believed it was a sign that marketers were listening and acting on what their customers want.
She said: “Sales promotions can take many forms but a strong strategy can really help to build loyalty and help with customer acquisition. It’s great to see a more positive outlook on the market but we can’t get complacent. Times are tough for business and creative ways to keep customers engaged can be the difference in surviving or not.”
And within weeks there was an upgrade in growth forecasts driven by the FIFA Women’s World Cup, the Para Athletics World Championships, and a raft of blockbuster movie releases, including the ubiquitous Barbie.
This meant the outlook for the total UK ad market in 2023 suggested that, while growth would be minimal at 2.6% year-on-year, the situation had improved (+2.1pp) since the previous forecast in April, with spend now expected to reach £35.7bn.
By the year end, double digit growth is expected from BVOD at 16.1% year-on-year, with increases also projected for online display (7.4%), out of home (7.7%) and cinema (7.6%).
It was also predicted to be a bumper Christmas for advertisers, with brands set to splash out a record £9.5bn during the festive season in an effort to get Brits to also spend, spend, spend.
Data released by the Advertising Association and WARC, revealed a 4.8% increase from last year’s record spend of £9bn and, according to the ad industry trade body, demonstrated the continued importance of advertising to the economy during the festive period.
Looking ahead to 2024, and it is likely that retail media will play a major role for advertisers, despite the economic turmoil.
WARC Media’s Global Ad Trends report predicted that global spend will reach $128.2bn (£104.8bn) this year, and $141.7bn (£115.8bn) in 2024, putting it on track to overtake linear TV as the third-largest channel by spend within a few years.
In the UK alone, Kingfisher, Superdrug, Boots, Asda, Morrisons, Sainsbury’s, and Tesco have either entered the market or stepped up their operations.
WARC Media head of content Alex Brownsell concluded: “Retail media has been the advertising story of the decade. The unfashionable and often informal world of trade and shopper marketing has transformed into a $128.2bn digital advertising behemoth.
“What comes next will be less spectacular but more significant to brands, as deterministic retail media data begins to inform campaigns across the media landscape.”
Related stories
Retail media: From shopper marketing to $141bn sector
Retail media to hit £21bn in drive for first-party data
Tesco reboots media platform for ‘precision at scale’
Brands eye festive bonanza with £9.5bn Xmas adspend
Adspend to reach £35.6bn as industry shows its mettle
Video is the digital star as H1 adspend reaches £13.8bn
Bellwether reaction: A return to long-term planning
Brands bolster attack and defence as promotions fall
Bellwether reaction: Is sales promotion killing brands?
Adland hit by surge in direct and promotional marketing